CLIENT CASE Energiedirect
Sales forecasting
Leveraging insights from price comparison sites to forecast and boost online sales performance.
About
Energiedirect
Energiedirect, a key player in the Dutch energy market, brings simplicity and transparency to power and gas supply. Known for competitive rates and a straightforward, no-nonsense approach, Energiedirect has built strong customer loyalty by prioritising accessible services and straightforward communication.
As part of the E.ON Group, Energiedirect benefits from the resources and innovation of one of Europe’s largest energy networks, enabling them to continually refine and expand their offerings—making energy simpler, more affordable, and increasingly sustainable for their customers.
USE CASE
Digital challenges
- Understand how Energiedirect's position on price comparison sites affected their sales.
- Predict Energiedirect's online sales based on their position on price comparison sites.
Key points
Available data
The data included daily pricing from various energy suppliers on price comparison sites, enabling a daily ranking calculation per site. It also included daily sales figures from each comparison site, along with Energiedirect’s overall online sales per day.
Two-phase random forest model
Phase 1 was a more explanatory model that was mainly used to analyse which positions and price differences had the most influence on the online sales.
Phase 2: We had to start with predicting the number of sales on the price comparison sites on the same day, so that we could then use this number to predict the online sales.
Interface
Based on the model, an interface was built which allowed them to play with Energiedirect's price and position to see how this affected final online sales and make predictions.
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